Is artificial intelligence the greatest threat to human existence?


By Neil Patrick


Here’s a clip from the Rubin Report in which Elon Musk states “AI is like summoning the demon”.

Interesting coming from someone who more than most people is at the forefront of understanding and developing high tech future businesses.

Does he know something we don’t?





The ensuing discussion in the clip seems to miss the point. Rubin’s mates have been watching too many dystopian movies and playing too many computer games in which robots go on killing sprees I suspect.



I wonder if the real reason Elon Musk is so cautionary about AI isn’t because we’re at risk of being slaughtered by evil robots, but because he can see that technological development is now outstripping the abilities of our current political, economic and social systems to keep up.

And that this situation means we have 21st century technology but 20th century political, education, economic, social and legal systems.

The outcome of this two speed society is that jobs will disappear faster than ever…and no jobs equals no money. And in our world, no money is effectively extinction…?

Is this what he’s really hinting at?



Is it ageist that you may be turned down for a mortgage because you are over 40?


By Neil Patrick

Daily Mail 25 Nov 2014: “Over 40? Then you CAN'T have a mortgage: Banks are now rejecting borrowers who would still be paying off loan in retirement”.

This headline caught my eye today. And as is often the case with the Daily Mail, it’s a thinly disguised attempt at sensationalism. Nonetheless, I think it is very significant news, but not because of the implied injustices it alleges.

The essence of the "story" is that new research found that people aged over 40 seeking a standard 25-year mortgage are finding their options restricted because (assuming their mortgage runs its full term - which they rarely do) they will be borrowing beyond the “normal” retirement age of 65.

The new Mortgage Market Review (MMR) rules, which came into force in April, mean that lenders have to spend more time considering whether home buyers can afford the mortgages they are applying for. - not a bad thing at all in my view.

The report released yesterday by the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) stated that "interpretations" of the MMR have convinced many banks that lending into retirement now carries extra risk if borrowers go on to find that their retirement income is less than expected.



Mortgage lenders have typically applied an upper age limit of 65 for decades now. So this point isn't really anything new.

I think the real story here isn’t about mortgages and whether or not we get accepted or rejected for one when we apply. The simple facts are that lending is and always has been priced according to lenders’ rules around risk assessment. Basically, the higher the perceived risk, the higher the cost of the loan.

But if one lender rejects your application, there will almost always be others that will accept it, albeit at a higher price and/or on different terms.

Banks and lenders get a hard time from the media. Often, it is justified. Sometimes it’s not. In this case, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they were not making stricter assessments, they’d be criticised for encouraging over-indebtedness. By applying tougher rules, they are criticised for making mortgages less easily available to some people.

So as far as the new assessment rules are concerned, it’s really not a story.

No, the real story is far behind the headlines.

What is significant I think is what this news reveals about how banks currently view the financial prospects for people aged over 40 in the UK.

Looked at in this way, this news is a bombshell.

Forget the MMR rules, this news tells us that as far as the banks are concerned, the income prospects of people over 40 are very weak. Make no mistake, if a bank is happy that you can afford to repay a mortgage or other loan, they’ll be happy to lend you the money (and of course take the interest too).

So the MMR gripes are a smokescreen. And this isn’t a new form of age discrimination.

But it is a very troubling indication, that those whose business it is to understand the outlook for our incomes have decided that despite rising house prices, the outlook for most peoples' incomes remain very fragile indeed.


Have you got the key skills for the information age?




I’ve  been writing a great deal recently about the destruction of jobs by what is variously called, the third industrial revolution, knowledge economy or new machine age. This situation creates a whole new set of challenges for everyone who wants to earn a living in these tough times.

Most of us know it is happening. What's thin on the ground is information about what we can do about it.

We need new solutions and we need to take personal ownership of our own countermeasures.

This isn’t just my opinion. Multiple and diverse organisations are reporting the same thing:

Manpower states that despite the recession, 31% of employers struggle to find qualified workers because of “a talent mismatch between workers’ qualifications and the specific skill sets and combinations of skills employers want.”

The American Management Corporation says that employers want workers who can think critically, solve problems creatively, innovate, collaborate, and communicate.

The National Association of Manufacturers reports, “Today’s skill shortages are extremely broad and deep, cutting across industry sectors and impacting more than 80% of companies surveyed. This human capital performance gap threatens our nation’s ability to compete . . . [and] is emerging as our nation’s most critical business issue."

The National Academies claim that “The danger exists that Americans may not know enough about science, technology, or mathematics to contribute significantly to, or fully benefit from, the knowledge-based economy that is already taking shape around us.”

The New York Times reports that low-skilled workers are being laid off and "turned away at the factory door and increasingly joining the swelling ranks of the long-term unemployed . . .” This issue results from a disparity between the skills that workers have and those that employers need.

So what can we do about it?

If the last time you sat in a classroom was at university or an employer’s course, the chances are high that your learning skills have significantly reduced. Of course we all acquire job specific skills at work, but what we don’t generally continue to develop in our jobs are the learning skills that are now critical for 21st century career survival.

If we accept that the pace of change in the world is accelerating, then it is logical to conclude that our ability to adapt to change must also be increasingly critical. And the key enabling mechanism for coping with change is learning.



What are the key learning skills for the 21st century workplace?

21st century skills are a set of abilities that everyone needs to develop in order to succeed in the information age. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills has identified three key learning skill areas.

I call them the three Cs of thinking; critical thinking, creative thinking and collaborative thinking:

Critical Thinking

Critical thinking is the ability to think clearly and rationally. It includes the ability to engage in reflective and independent thinking. Someone with critical thinking skills is able to do the following :
 
  • understand the logical connections between ideas 
  • identify, construct and evaluate arguments 
  • detect inconsistencies and common mistakes in reasoning 
  • solve problems systematically 
  • identify the relevance and importance of ideas 
  • reflect on the justification of one’s own beliefs and values 

After we leave education and start to exist in the world of our jobs, our critical thinking skills may easily become rusty. Other factors start to influence and direct our thought processes. The competitive environments we often experience encourage competitive reactions – the exact opposite of one of the other Cs – collaboration.

So good critical thinking skills not only break the force field of groupthink, they also encourage collaboration.



Creative Thinking

This is the process by which individuals come up with new ideas or new approaches to business. New ideas could result in new products, procedures or policies. They could also result in a new process that cuts costs or improves quality - for example, a bagless vacuum cleaner.

Fresh ideas give businesses a competitive advantage and help make their goods or services stand out in the market place.

We can make use of several different thinking techniques to improve our creativity:
  • Lateral thinking or thinking outside the box. An example of this would be breaking down the steps taken to serve coffee in a cafĂ© and asking 'why' at each step to see if a better process can be created. 
  • Deliberate creativity uses thinking techniques to spark off new ideas. For example, putting on different thinking hats to tackle problems from different angles. 'White-hat' thinking looks at facts and 'black-hat' thinking looks at drawbacks. 
  • Blue-sky thinking involves a group of people looking at an opportunity with fresh eyes. As many ideas as possible are generated in an ideas generation session where no ideas are rejected as silly. 

Collaborative thinking

There are generally accepted to be seven rules for all collaboration:

Look for common ground: find shared values, consider shared personal experiences, pay attention to and give feedback, be yourself and expect the same of others, be willing to accept differences in perception and opinions

Learn about others: consider their perspectives and needs, appeal to the highest motives, let others express themselves freely

Critique results, not people: do not waste time on personal hostility, make other people feel good, avoid criticism and put downs

Give and get respect: show respect for others' opinions, be considerate and friendly, put yourself in the other person's shoes, be responsive to emotions, speak with confidence but remain tactful

Proceed slowly: present one idea at a time, check for understanding and acceptance of each idea before moving on to the next. Speak in an organized and logical sequence.

Be explicit and clear: share your ideas and feelings, pay attention to nonverbal communication, speak clearly and make eye contact, select words that have meaning for your listeners

Remember the five "Cs" of communication: clarity, completeness, conciseness, concreteness, and correctness

It's not a co-incidence that the social web or internet 2.0 also functions with these principles at its core.



New Skills for New Jobs

These skills have always been important for personal development, but they are now absolutely critical in our information-based economy. When most workers held jobs in industry, the key skills were knowing a trade, following directions, getting along with others, working hard, and being professional - efficient, prompt, honest, and fair.

To hold information-age jobs though, people also need to think deeply about issues, solve problems creatively, work in teams, communicate clearly in many media, learn ever-changing technologies, and deal with a flood of information. The rapid changes in our world require us to be flexible, to take the initiative and lead when necessary, and to produce something new and useful.

But these thinking skills aren’t just relevant to our careers and jobs. They play a part in making the world a better and more just place for all of us. I think there’s a good argument that the absence of these thought processes within the management of the banking world was the biggest single factor in the financial collapse of 2008. If we ever needed an example of the terrible consequences of endemic groupthink, we need look no further.

So next time you are considering what skills you could acquire to enhance your career prospects, think outside the box and think about what you can do to improve your thinking skills. Not just for yourself but the world as well.