Stephen Hawking on the threats of artificial intelligence

By Neil Patrick

It was an odd co-incidence that yesterday I posted a piece sub-titled “Is your job at risk of being taken by a machine? A few hours later Professor Stephen Hawking was featured on the main BBC evening news with an even more gloomy prediction that artificial intelligence could be the greatest threat to the very existence of mankind.

Hawking, one of Britain's pre-eminent scientists, went much, much further than I was brave enough to do. He said that efforts to create thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence. He told the BBC: "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race."

Hawking is a theoretical physicist, who has the motor neurone disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and is currently using a new AI assisted speech system. His warning came in response to a question about an upgrade of the technology he uses which was developed by Intel.

Machine learning experts at the British company Swiftkey were also involved in its creation. Their technology, already employed as a smartphone keyboard app, learns how he thinks and suggests the words he might want to use next. ("God help us" seems like it might be useful).

Hawking believes the basic forms of artificial intelligence developed so far have proved very useful, but he fears the consequences of creating something that can match or surpass humans.

"It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate," he said.

Professor Stephen Hawking

Ever mindful of its commitment to balanced reporting, the BBC was quick to find an expert commentator with an opposing view. Rollo Carpenter, creator of Cleverbot added to the debate saying,  "I believe we will remain in charge of the technology for a decently long time and the potential of it to solve many of the world problems will be realised." 

Cleverbot is software that is designed to chat like a human would. Its  software learns from its past conversations. In tests, it fooled a high proportion of people into believing they were talking to a real person.

Carpenter asserted that we are still a long way from having the computing power or the algorithms needed to achieve full artificial intelligence. But even he believes it will come in the next few decades.

"We cannot quite know what will happen if a machine exceeds our own intelligence, so we can't know if we'll be infinitely helped by it, or ignored by it and sidelined, or conceivably destroyed by it," he said.

I need to be braver in my position I think. And my opinion inclines more to Hawking for the simple reason that he has absolutely no vested interest in allaying concerns about the threats of technology.

I don't fear being physically killed by an out of control robot. I do fear that our whole economic system and the jobs within it will be killed if we don't do something.

I don't need to contemplate the distant future. Even today's 'basic' AI and technology is destroying jobs right now every day. Hawkings and Rollo are both contemplating the future decades ahead.

But that’s academic. The distant future isn’t the issue. Today is.