Showing posts with label government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government. Show all posts

Britain set to become world leader in unemployment technology


1 April 2016

By Neil Patrick

As technology continues to transform jobs, a new government initiative will virtually eliminate jobs in the Jobs Centre network across the UK.

The flagship programme called ‘Care4Jobs’ will massively reduce staffing in job centres and in some centres eliminate them completely. Touch screens which automatically connect jobseekers’ social media accounts with suitable employers are being used to help people find work faster than was ever possible before. Because employers and jobseekers are now both using social media every day, the scheme was described as being a “no-brainer” by Jeremy Twonkington-Smyth, Under Secretary of Work for State and Pensions. He said:

“Britain has a long and proud history of world-leading innovation in the delivery of public services. We are determined to ensure we remain committed to the vital services we provide for job-seekers and employers. Our pilot study carried out in Grimsby, a northern town I hope I never have to visit, showed that the automated social media connection of employers and job-seekers had an immediate impact on the time taken to locate suitable jobs. This has resulted in a rapid decline in the number of unemployment benefit claimants. Many have already found jobs in Starbucks, McDonalds, Asda and other leading high quality employers who have embraced the digital and social media world. Some claimants have simply vanished completely which is a mystery we have set up a sub-committee to look into. ”

The use of this new technology in Job Centres means that the costs and difficulties of maintaining staffing levels are significantly reduced.

“We inherited a massively bloated and unproductive department from the previous government and have been working hard to rectify this. We have always had problems with staff in job centres. Some take several days off each year claiming to be sick, others take far too long to get their work done.”

Not only does this innovation increase productivity in job centres, it is enabling unemployed people in the UK to become part of the new ‘global gig economy’:

“We want to future proof our services and the use of these televisual screen thingies connected to the world wide interweb, means UK job-seekers can find jobs all over the world. Unemployed people in Britain have amassed many skills much sought after overseas. More than 20 have already secured work in dynamic overseas economies like Brazil, Colombia and Romania.”


Thanks to this innovative new scheme, Barry
 Clunge, 41 from Stockport has already found
 a new job working part-time in sunny Madrid.

The programme to automate job centres has cost £3.4bn and Mr Twonkington-Smyth said this was an excellent investment:

“This technology will establish Britain as a world leader in unemployment. Because technology works so much better than people, we will see both a reduction in unemployment claims and faster hirings. Best of all, the costs the unemployed impose on hard working families will fall dramatically.”

When asked about the forecast 28,000 redundancies in job centres, he was upbeat:

“We sincerely regret that a number of valued colleagues in our job centres can no-longer be paid for their work. Some will choose our community service option, where they can still attend the job centre as usual and work on a voluntary basis. I know many care passionately about helping people find work, and this will enable them to continue with their valuable work and continue to find personal fulfilment.”

“Those who choose not to take up this attractive option thanks to their excellent skills will be much in demand by other employers. Their skills such as working with people with financial, mental, drug and alcohol problems will be much sought after by all sorts of employers from call centres to retail.”

The Think-tank on Work and Technology (TWAT) said, “Our studies have shown that this sort of work is carried out much faster and more reliably by IT systems than people. Our research found that over 70% of employers prefer to use technology to automatically select candidates rather than having people manually review applications. The savings for businesses will be considerable.”

The technology for the programme has been developed by tech entrepreneur, Josh Jones, founder and CEO of Govetech Systems, an innovative IT developer which Josh founded in 2014 with a young entrepreneur grant of £1.2m from the EU Innovation Fund.

He said: “We are delighted with the success of the Care4Jobs platforms. This sort of system has many applications and we are already working on a further system which will enable the armed services to largely avoid the need to deploy troops into conflict zones. Instead they will use a combination of gaming technology and social media to connect with and then invite adversaries to fight them online. It will save billions of government spending on defence and enable the reduction of already overstretched armed forces troops and support staff.”


Josh Jones, 28, dynamic young entrepreneur
and CEO of Govetech Systems


“Enquiries from oversea governments have been coming faster than we ever thought possible. We are already in discussions with government representatives from Greece, Russia and most exciting of all the United States. Excuse me, I have to take this Skype call from my stock-broker.”

The opposition spokesperson on Work and Jobs, Miranda Trellis MP said:

“This is a cruel and uncaring government that is cynically attempting to export unemployment. Thousands of families will be devastated by this move. We are liaising closely with the Union for Technology Workers’ Employment Rights and Policy Unit (UTWERPU) to organise a protest campaign to force the government to rethink this regressive strategy which will bring misery to people already deprived of opportunities. Sorry, I’m late for an equality and human rights committee meeting with JC. Can I go now?”

Why the US Middle Class is in danger of extinction


By Neil Patrick

Current news reports claim the US job market is slowly improving. Is this a return to better days? Sadly no. It’s a transformation for sure, but not back to anything like we all knew 10 years or so ago.

Make no mistake about it, America's middle-class jobs have been destroyed in the wake of the 2007-8 financial collapse. The growth in new jobs reported gleefully by the government have been almost entirely low-wage jobs. And there is little reason to believe this situation can be quickly or easily reversed.

What has caused this? In the next few posts, I want to look at the factors that are behind this tragic state of affairs, dig into what’s happening and what we can do about it.

I believe there is no single cause or culprit. Instead it’s a complex cocktail of seven factors which have collided to create a perfect storm for skilled American workers. In brief these are:
  • Record levels of government and personal debt 
  • The rise of technology leading to ever falling marginal costs 
  • Capital shifts away from labour and into non-human investments 
  • The globalisation of businesses 
  • Government fiscal policies 
  • Demographics and education 
  • Finite global resources 

But I am getting ahead. In this post, I am going to look at:
  • The nature of the alleged jobs “recovery” 
  • Why GDP growth isn’t making people better off
  • The transference of government debt to households.

The substitution of high paid jobs by low paid jobs is beyond doubt

A recent presentation from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco describes the jobs “recovery” in stark terms. The vast majority of job losses during the recession were in middle-income occupations, and they've largely been replaced by low-wage jobs since 2010:



Mid-wage occupations, made up a staggering 60% of the job losses during the recession. But mid-wage jobs have made up just 22% of the jobs gained during the recovery.

By contrast, low-wage occupations have totally dominated the recovery. They represent 58% of the job gains since 2010. "Many middle-class workers have lost their jobs and, if they have been able to secure new employment at all, find themselves earning far lower wages post-recession," the San Francisco Fed says.



Nearly 40% of the jobs gained since the recovery began - about 1.7 million - have come from three low-wage sectors: food services, retail, and employment services.

And four low-wage occupations are now the top four types of employment in the US: retail sales, cashiers, office clerks, and food preparation and servers:



The problem is compounded by the fact that industries which employ mid-wage earners, such as construction, manufacturing, insurance, real estate and IT, have either stagnated or grown too slowly to recover their pre-recession losses.

Worse again, budget cuts to federal and state government have eliminated a vast swathe of mid- and higher-wage jobs. And a separate chunk of middle-wage jobs including carpenters, plumbers, plasterers and electricians are still waiting for the U.S. housing market to recover.

The growth of wealth inequality is a problem for all, not just the poorest

This is creating a polarised workforce in the United States. Over the past decade, both high- and low-wage jobs have been growing. But jobs in the middle continue to shrink. Mid-wage jobs suffered a major drop after 2001, largely stagnated during the 2000s, and have now declined even further in the most recent downturn.

Economists have been debating the causes of this divergence. Harvard’s Lawrence Katz and Claudia Goldin, argue that new technologies and machines are now displacing mid-wage jobs.

I believe this is a correct analysis as I talked about here. But it’s not the full story. Some others, such as Larry Mishel of the Economic Policy Institute, point to political factors, from the decline of labor unions to trade liberalization to the dwindling minimum wage. This is a factor too, but again it’s only an ingredient in the mix, not the full disastrous recipe.

But neither of these arguments discuss the lead weight which is pulling the whole economy down. And that weight is government debt. That debt puts massive upward pressure on tax, demands endless quantitative easing (devaluation of the dollar to you and me) and limits government spending – the type of spending which would create more jobs in the public sector.

It seems logical to me that there’s no single simple explanation of what’s going on. It’s multi-factorial which makes it complex to understand and remedy both at a national and individual level.

But if the trend continues, it will amplify something which is already a big problem in the United Sates: income inequality. Not to mention the destruction of the hopes and aspirations of a huge swathe of American society. And needless to say, that’s a bad thing…

GDP growth and household incomes have become separated

For the first time in US history, economic growth is no longer driving income improvements at the household level.

Traditionally, improvements in GDP have directly resulted in increased income and prosperity for citizens. In the US, this link has broken. US median household income is now at a lower level than it was in 1999. In fact even though US GDP has been on the rise since 2009, household income has been falling since 2008:


Here we see the evidence of how as technology continues to increase productivity and reduce marginal costs, so we have GDP growth but no wealth creation except for those who are in the boardrooms and/or major equity owners.

To look at it in its simplest terms, businesses can create higher returns with less human labour inputs than ever before. The first industrial revolution substituted human muscle power with mechanical devices. The second industrial revolution transformed transport and communications. And the third industrial revolution is replacing human cognitive tasks with artificial intelligence.

So until recently, technological improvements have only really affected those who sold their manual capacity to earn a living. Today’s technology is reducing the workforce needed for tasks which required the application of professional and mental skills too. But there’s another problem; if we are selling our manual labour, we need to do nothing to create our commodity. Our bodies are there to be applied to work whenever we want. Little or no training is needed.

But jobs requiring the application of skill and knowledge are different. The acquisition of these skills can take years. Sometime decades. And if no-one wants them anymore, we have a stark choice – dump them and start again or try and compete for unskilled work.

So we have an American middle class with skills that fewer and fewer people want or need to pay for. The keys to the acquisition of wealth are no longer the sale of our labour and skill. They are the ownership of income generating assets. And thanks to booming stockmarkets, owning assets has made most of the wealthy even wealthier over the last few years.

This is the reality of the polarisation of America’s workforce. Greater wealth acquisition by those at the top, those who own assets, but falling income levels for everyone else… not just the poorest, but the vast majority of Americans.

Needless to say, this is also a bad thing…

The burden of government debt is being passed to households

Despite multiple deficit-reduction deals during the past three years, the US national debt is projected to swell to 100 percent of the economy by 2038, due primarily to the enormous cost of caring for an aging society.

Whilst WW2 exceeded the current peak of government debt, the end of WW2 and the global restructuring that arose from its ashes is a very different scenario to that we face today. Post 1945 saw the US emerge as the dominant global super power. It’s huge manufacturing capacity, abundant natural resources and global markets created the wealthiest society on the planet:


But post 1980 has seen the failure of that economic model as the production of cheaper goods of equivalent or even higher quality started to materialize in low wage economies.

Making matters worse, tax cuts for the vast majority of Americans were made permanent during last year's fiscal cliff showdown. If the tax cuts had been allowed to expire, projections showed the debt dropping to 52 percent of GDP during the next 25 years.

In effect, huge government debts are being allowed to accumulate unchecked. But sooner or later these debts will be passed to individual citizens rich and poor through the giant levers of fiscal policy.

And you guessed it; this is also a bad thing…

So these three points define the problem: 

  • Millions of jobs for skilled workers in the middle income bracket have simply vanished. 
  • Economic growth has become of value only to the asset owning classes. 
  • Government debt will continue to be passed onto citizens. 

This isn’t a problem which can be solved by the traditional tools of government. If you want to place your faith there, that’s your prerogative and I hope you are right. My take is that we all need to come up with our own personal solution. It might just be the biggest test of our lives…

I’ll be back with more on this soon.




Why politicians won’t solve the jobs crisis


By Neil Patrick

Politicians simply don’t get the nature of work in the 21st century.

Let’s just dismiss the idea they just don’t care because they’re too busy looking out for themselves. The more worrying evidence suggests that they don’t understand the nature and pace of the evolution of technology. And how this is reshaping the world of work.

Today in the UK, self-employed people represent the fastest growing sector of employment. 

These people exist completely outside the politicians’ bubble. But politicians do little or nothing to support them. After all, very few will become big enough in the politicians’ term of office to make any impact on either employment levels or the treasury’s income.

The politicians therefore have little incentive to pay attention to this change. They see the future as a world which is somehow a newer, shinier version of the old one. A world which is big, bold and full of promise. It makes them feel like they are being visionary. The architects of a better future society.

So, they get busy implementing big, “important” projects . They like big things after all. But the 21st century world is a fragmented one. And it’s getting smaller not bigger. Microchips will soon be just one atom and ultimately subatomic. (Yes. Look it up). Big corporations are being nibbled away by much smaller faster moving competitors. And devolution is showing that people want smaller more local governments, not bigger more federal ones.

But the politicians carry on making uninformed and anachronistic decisions about the things that shape every aspect of our lives and how companies and individuals function. Don’t believe me? Here are just three examples.

There’s no recovery in jobs, at least not the type of jobs government understands.

In June, the Office for National Statistics released figures which show that flexible working is at a record high in the UK. The headline figure from the ONS is that 14% of the UK workforce is now either working full time from home or use home as a base. This represents a 1.3 million increase over the six years since the onset of the recession.

Total jobs growth in the same period was around 1.8 million. In other words, over two thirds of the UK jobs created since the recession began have been self-employed or based at home.

Note to government: This is NOT the future of work...
Source: Wikipedia.  Credit: Chris Brown http://500px.com/zoonabar


The Government is claiming this as a victory for its legislation. They want us to believe their foresight has enlightened bosses in helping employees find a better work life balance.

In an interview,  Co-Chair of the LibDem Parliamentary Party Committee on Work and Pensions and a Deputy Government Whip, Jenny Willott said that: "Current workplace arrangements are old fashioned and rigid. Extending the right to request flexible working to all employees will drive a cultural shift where flexible working becomes the norm and is not just for the benefit of parents and carers."

But government legislation isn’t what’s driving this change.

Clearly, this is spin. It's not government policy but in fact the explosion of homeworking that is driving Britain’s rapidly expanding army of freelancers and micro-businesses. The recent increase in employment levels is almost entirely down to a huge surge in the numbers of people who are self-employed.

In the last quarter of 2013 alone, the number of people identified as self-employed rose by a staggering 211,000 while the number of employees fell by 60,000. There are now around 4.5 million self-employed people in the UK. 

These people aren’t working from home as an alternative to going to work in an office for an employer. There is no office and no employer, so employment legislation is of no use or relevance to them. They are doing what they do in spite of what the government is doing with regard to flexible working, not because of it.

Technology is an enabler for small business but a nightmare for large organisations

Start-ups and small businesses reap huge rewards from the tech revolution. Digital media enables immediate and fast deployment of a whole range of powerful tools from video conferencing to online sales platforms.

But transitioning big bureaucracies from paper based systems to digital ones is very different. It’s a huge, complex and expensive task. As a result, we can be pretty confident that when a new government digital system actually goes live after running millions over budget and being delivered late, it still won’t work properly.

Recently, the think tank Policy Exchange reported that the UK public sector could save £24 billion a year by offering the UK population universal fast broadband and migrating all Government information and services to digital platforms.

One of a handful of politicians who do get tech, Nadhim Zahawi is quoted as responding to the report by saying: “The internet and technology is shaping the way everyone interacts, transacts and reacts and has been doing so for at least a decade… well, everyone, that is, except government.”

There is movement of course, but it is painfully slow because the Government knows just how complex, expensive and disaster prone these transitions actually are. And when reducing government debt is a priority, such initiatives have pretty low appeal.

But the good news for government is that if they shifted their attention to the small business sector, things are much less scary and there are lots of quick wins to be had. But this involves breaking the habit of thinking big and instead thinking small…

Like the relatively simple task of getting fast broadband available everywhere in the country. Not only would this transform Government services, universal fast broadband is simply the single most important piece of infrastructure the UK could introduce.

So if home working and digital technology is the future, why is the government looking to invest in 20th century infrastructures?

One of the most extreme examples of how governments make bad decisions around the future of work is the high speed rail network approved in 2012 connecting Manchester and Leeds with Birmingham and Birmingham with London. This is known as HS2.

This high speed rail network will enable people to save time moving across the UK. Some journey times such as Manchester to London are expected to be reduced by almost 50%. 

HS2 Railroutes
Source: Wikipedia   Credit: Cnbrb


But by 2033, when the project will allegedly complete, how many people are actually going to want or need to make such journeys at all? By then it seems a safe bet that current technology trends will likely have developed to a point where such journeys are too expensive, too slow and too prone to disruption if not on the train journey then in the travel to and from the stations?

June 2013 saw the original projected cost of HS2 rise by £10bn to £42.6bn and, less than a week later, it was revealed that the DfT had been using an outdated model to estimate the productivity increases associated with the railway, which meant the project's economic benefits were massively overstated.

Peter Mandelson, originally a major advocate of HS2 when the Labour Party was in government, declared shortly afterwards that HS2 would be an "expensive mistake" and also admitted that the inception of HS2 was "politically driven" to "paint an upbeat view of the future" following the financial crash. He further admitted that the original cost estimates were "almost entirely speculative" and that "Perhaps the most glaring gap in the analysis presented to us at the time were the alternative ways of spending £30bn."

Boris Johnson similarly warned that the costs of the scheme would be in excess of £70 billion. The Institute of Economic Affairs estimates that it will cost more than £80 billion. Incidentally, that figure is pretty much the same as the entire GDP of New Zealand…

But there are non-financial arguments too to conclude that HS2 is a really bad idea. HS2 is not designed for the world of 2033, when it will be complete. It’s designed for a world in which people travelled to meetings. A world in which businesses were big and business was managed via top down command and control hierarchies and nationally dispersed teams.

Thanks to the politician’s disconnect with the reality of 21st century work, the UK is now saddled with a hugely expensive white elephant that will almost certainly end up costing even more than the worst case projection so far of £80 billion. And deliver far fewer benefits than even the most cautious estimates.

It really is time for our leaders to ditch their big ideas and start thinking small.



Why qualifications won't guarantee you a job anymore


By Neil Patrick

Research says there's an abundance of skilled technical workers in the US. Employers say they can't find enough people with technical skills...so who's right?

Last week I was sent a report by a friend. It was a lengthy research piece which reported an oversupply of STEM (science, technical, engineering and maths) qualified workers in the US.

Since he’s an engineer who’s been engaged in a very lengthy job search, he couldn't square this report with the constant allegations from employers that they can’t find the right people with the right technical skills. He thought something didn’t add up. And I agreed with him.

The findings in the report were consistent with other examinations of the STEM labor market. These found no evidence of a general shortage of STEM workers. (That’s because they weren’t looking at the right things as I’ll explain shortly).

STEM jobs remain scarce not workers

In 2012, in the US, there were more than twice as many people with STEM degrees (immigrant and native) as there were STEM jobs — 5.3 million STEM jobs vs. 12.1 million with STEM degrees. And only one-third of US natives with a STEM degree that hold a job do so in a STEM occupation.

Further, one-third of STEM workers do not have a STEM degree, suggesting that absence of a STEM qualification isn’t an insurmountable obstacle to many jobs in the sector.

Perhaps most tellingly, real wages for almost all categories of STEM workers have shown almost no growth for more than a decade. None of this is consistent with the idea that STEM workers are in short supply.

So why are employers reporting the opposite?

At the root of the problem is the fact that the researchers were academics. In other words, out of touch with the real world. In fact it was quite possible, they’d never even set foot in it, such is the way that universities often hermetically seal their research people away from business and industry.

So where’s the error?

The researchers had used the number of people holding STEM degrees as their prime metric to measure the total available workforce of techies, and on this basis they concluded that the supply was ample to meet the needs of employers.

Here’s why that’s a mistake…

Employers do not view educational qualifications as their key measure of suitability for employment. It’s a hygene factor. It qualifies you for consideration, not for hiring. So it’s perfectly possible for employers to say they have a skills shortage because educational qualifications alone do not make candidates automatically employable. They also require (rightly or wrongly) evidence of relevant previous work experience and personality fit.

Introducing the latest bubble…it’s higher education

We all know that the recession means that business growth has been in short supply over the last 5 or 6 years. Meanwhile the educational fat cats have continued to happily make money by churning out people with qualifications, even though suitable jobs have been too scarce to allow sufficient numbers to gain relevant work experience.

It’s a pipe, connected to a tap – the tap has been left turned on and the pipe has contracted (at least for the past few years), resulting in an inevitable blockage.



Source: ONS


The higher education sector has become big business. And like all big businesses, it’s hungry for constant growth. As the graph above shows, the proportion of graduates in the UK population has more than doubled since 1992.

The educational ‘export’ market has been a particularly lucrative business as the aspirational middle classes have massively expanded in the far east economies. Every time I set foot in a UK higher education institution, the place is packed with overseas students.

This bubble  is unsustainable...

My good friend and bubble expert Jesse Colombo has done a great deal of forensic work examining the education bubble in the US. I’ll just quote a little of his analysis here:

Even more alarming than the rate of tuition growth is the blistering increase in total outstanding student loans, which grew 511% since 1999 to $1 trillion (surpassing total credit card debt for the first time), with today’s average student graduating with 50% more student debt than graduates in 2001.





Student loans made by the federal government rose a white-hot 31.9 percent in the 12 months through November 2011. Even Moody’s is warning that student loans may be the next financial bubble to burst, while a recent FICO survey shows that two-thirds of bank risk managers are seriously concerned about the student debt loads held by students in the country.

For more of Jesse’s detailed analysis of this topic just follow this link.

When I went to university here in the UK in 1981, well under 15% of my peers did the same. And the state paid for it by means of a modest, means-tested grant with a contribution from my parents (thanks Mum and Dad) which I had to supplement by working at (instead of drinking at) a bar.

Back then, universities were not businesses. For better or worse they were state institutions. And they acted like it…they were slow to change and whilst they could spell "innovative financial leverage", they didn't really practice it.

But that was all set to change when government decided that it was a good idea (i.e. vote winning) to proclaim that university education was elitist and it was socially just to get more young people from less privileged backgrounds into the university system. It also appeared to be a handy way to reduce the growing numbers of the young unskilled unemployed. Instead of a glut of young people signing on for state benefits as soon as they left school, this would create a new generation of educated and aspirational young people, eager to take the economy to hew heights. Except this had to be paid for by them signing up to government debt, using what I can only describe as career mortgages.

The trouble is that whilst I agree with its egalitarian principles, this vision missed the vital recognition that this expanded output from the education system needed to dovetail precisely with the ever evolving needs of business and industry.

And that's where everything went horribly and tragically wrong.

So do we have a more employable population? Not quite. While the elite universities have expanded only modestly, protected their brand value and retained their high quality standards, there’s been an absolute explosion of less selective, lower quality degree courses made available to almost anyone who is willing to pay for them.

Young and old alike are both losers in this game. Oversupply of university educated people has created a glut of unsatisfied aspirations and debt for the young, and done little to provide businesses with the skills they seek in their workforces.

For the mature and experienced, it’s seen the perception of the value of their years of accumulated know how crumble in the eyes of employers who place the highest value on the most recent qualifications (provided this is backed up with recent and relevant experience).

Oh and of course the UK and US governments have also burdened each and every one of us with another massive government debt that will sooner or later have to be written off or bailed out...



Beware false idols - especially when they are talking politics


By Neil Patrick

After Russell Brand got a lot of airtime last week with his comments about the economy in an interview with Jeremy Paxman on the BBC, it got me wondering about how other folk from the world of entertainment were commenting on society and politics.

And I didn’t have far to look. It seems that the economy is becoming the new rock and roll for a whole heap of entertainment folk.
Russell Brand

Here’s a piece from Henry Rollins where he puts forward his opinion that many of the economic problems in the US could be solved with more education and more health provision.

And it's very entertaining. But it’s nonsense.

But it’s such a shame that’s it’s nonsense. I happen to like Henry Rollins. He’s a man of many great talents. He has made some awesome music, he’s a brilliant poet and speaker and he’s a really funny guy too when he chooses to take on that persona.

But he’s not got a clue about economics or government. Sure, he’s really passionate. He’s a powerful speaker and I want to believe him, I really do. But he’s just so wrong. And this is where he ends up in the same camp as Russell Brand, who is also so fired up, he looks like he might explode at any moment.

But this is a very engaging talk as I’m sure you’ll agree:






So why do I think Henry is wrong? He’s wrong in just the same way that Russell Brand was wrong.

The US, the UK and Europe have a big set of problems right now. We all know that. We don’t need to be told that we are in a really bad place economically and socially. We don’t need to be told that our governments are failing us.

But we don’t need people who are professional entertainers telling us how to fix things. Okay, our politicians haven’t got a clue either, but a career in entertainment doesn't exactly equip you with a good set of leadership skills for a crisis situation.

Ironically, it’s politicians who have mastered oratory and argument rather than policy and leadership that got us into this mess in the first place.

What we need is people who are competent to lead. People who don’t put self interest first. People who can inspire us to support tough decisions about hard choices. And people we can trust.

The entertainers engage us. They know how to inspire us. And as masters of engagement they can put forward their views in a passionate and superficially convincing way.

But that doesn't mean they are right. And it doesn't mean they have the faintest clue what they are talking about.

So to quote The Who who knew a thing or two about rock and roll, ‘Meet the new boss…same as the old boss'.

Now there’s a cautionary lyric if ever I heard one.


The good news is we’re living longer. The bad news is we can’t afford it.


Here's a recent article from the Kansas City Star. It describes perfectly why I set up this blog. Baby boomers are facing the toughest test of their lives. And because all our hopes and expectations were set in an era when our futures looked entirely different, our education, aspirations and attitudes were founded on a whole set of assumptions which have failed to materialize

My question is what are we going to do about it? I sure as hell won't put my faith in the idea that anyone in government will come up with effective solutions, so we have to look after ourselves.
What do you think?


By Scott Canon and Steve Kraske


From the age of 23, when she was the first female steelworker at Butler Manufacturing, Diana Arends labored to carve out a solid middle-class existence.

Elbow grease and grit moved her steadily up a union hierarchy until, as a tool-and-die maker at age 59, she sat atop the union pay scale at Ball Corp.’s beverage-can plant in Kansas City.

Then came the crash of ’08, the closing of the plant and the start of hard times that look to define the remaining decades of her life - and tens of millions of baby boomers like her.

She’s worked just one year of the five since trouble gut-punched a generation just as a decent retirement seemed within reach. Her 401(k), the tax-sheltered account she’d been stocking all those years, was suddenly cut in half by the stock market dive and it hasn’t rebounded to where it should. By age 62, she was forced to tap into Social Security early. That meant that forevermore, her monthly check would be $600 lighter.

Now 64, she still looks for work that puts her skills to use and strikes out, concluding that bosses have little interest in a leftover from a manufacturing age. She lives with her daughter and granddaughter in a Lee’s Summit home that no longer has cable TV or a landline phone, that chills in the winter and toasts in August. The three will mine this newspaper heavily for coupons.

“I expected to be able to retire, take a camping trip now and then,” Arends said. “I didn’t expect to still be job hunting to supplement my income.”

A generation once warned not to trust anyone over 30, and that now has kids with kids, wonders if it can believe in its own old age. An implied bargain that promised security after decades in the workaday world looks, if not busted, mighty rickety.

Look now, five years after the fall, and the landscape looks uneasy and unfamiliar.

“There’s a whole new world out there,” said Ralph Monaco, a Kansas Citian and baby boomer.

Too many nest eggs got dashed in the 2008 cratering of stocks and home equity. Sure, things have bounced back … slowly. But half a decade of what should have marked prime, late-career earning years - from both investments and wages - all but evaporated.

Baby boomers were more likely to hang onto their jobs through the Great Recession than younger workers. Still, for those older workers who got laid off, the pink slips were especially devastating - forcing early and painful dips into retirement funds.

The still-employed also got whacked. Many saw company contributions to pensions, or matches to retirement accounts, evaporate. Wages stagnated or shrunk - at just the time in their careers that folks might expect to finally make top dollar.

And the lousy job market for young workers meant Junior’s inability to rise above barista extended his reliance on Mom and Dad deeper into his 20s - and their dotage.

“If you look at people 46 to 64, it used to be that that was the prime of your life, not only in terms of contentment and satisfaction, but also in income,” said Teresa Ghilarducci, director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at the New School for Social Research.

But not this generation.

“The boomers,” she said, “will be the first generation to do worse in their old age than their parents or grandparents.”

Shaky footing

Even before the crash, signs crept up that retirement years might not be so golden, or even reachable. Pensions increasingly lacked the full funding needed to guarantee the promised monthly checks. Although the federal government promises to backstop many of those pension funds, you didn’t need to be Chicken Little to imagine more collapsing accounts than Uncle Sam could field.

Meanwhile, fewer employers felt a need to tempt workers with the promise of a pension. And the Pepsi Generation that never tasted the bitterness of the Great Depression did relatively little to save for the rainy days of retirement.

In the still go-go days of 2007, the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College calculated that 44 percent of Americans nearing retirement were at risk of falling significantly short of their current lifestyles if they tried retiring at age 65.

Then in 2008, ordinary Americans began hearing about mortgage derivatives and other financial gymnastics. Suddenly, their home equity morphed into mortgage debt, their boss stopped pension contributions and 401(k) matches, or maybe their services weren’t even needed anymore.

In an eye blink, a generation’s retirement prospects turned from sketchy to crummy. By 2010, the number at risk of being unable to retire at age 65 had jerked up to 53 percent.

“The boomers are going into retirement in terrible shape,” said David Cay Johnston, author of “The Fine Print: How Big Companies use ‘Plain English’ to Rob You Blind.”

He’s studied pensions and America’s retirement systems for decades and concluded the Great Recession not only buckled boomers’ knees, it widened the chasm between the country’s haves and have-nots.

The laid-off and desperate found themselves forced to dip into stock-based savings when their values were particularly low. They were forced to cash out at the worst possible time. Those buying up those bargains — the wealthy — were the only people who had cash to spare. And it’s the rich who’ve profited from the subsequent rebound.

More work, if any

Meanwhile, a transforming economy of mergers and new-found efficiencies meant more workers got tossed to the side. That can prove daunting enough at any point in a career, but it’s especially tough for older workers.

“At this point in your life, you’re beyond the mountain climbing, beyond the time to make a name for yourself,” said Janice Lambert of Overland Park.

She’s 59 and laid off. Her employer merged with another company, was sold again and sold a third time - at which point it no longer had room for her.

She talks about feeling like a puppet, with distant financial forces tugging the strings that toss her future this way and that. To her, it feels like the puppet masters responsible for the 2008 financial crisis only got richer.

“It wasn’t supposed to be this way,” she said.

If she finds a decent job, she’ll likely stay in the workforce untold extra years to make up for lost time.

Baby boomers - a diverse demographic of nearly 80 million born between roughly 1946 and 1962 - peer into a time after work and see, well, more work. Assuming the workplace has room for folks who once thought of technology as a slide rule (look it up, kids).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that between 2008 and 2018, the number of middle-aged folks in the American workforce will jump by 33 percent. The number of workers 65 and older is expected to grow by almost 80 percent.

Little in reserve

Making it all sting a little more is that, as a generation, it’s not been a particularly frugal bunch.

Relative to their salaries and their lives filled with SUVs, 200-channel TV, beach vacations, boats and Botox, they’ve saved very little. On average, baby boomers waited until they reached age 35 before they even started setting aside money for retirement. By one estimate, even if they transform all their savings into annuities and max out reverse home mortgages, half the generation will see a marked drop in standard of living during retirement.

“We’ve lived beyond our means. We’ve used the equity in our homes for the last decade as cash machines,” said Daryl Eckman, a 59-year-old certified financial planner in Prairie Village. “We feel we have to live a certain way. … We feel we have to drive a certain car, put up appearances.”

If a friend his age has money, chances are Eckman is managing it. Their ledger, he said, usually reflects that even those with six-figure incomes live on the edge.

“The floor drops out on them very quickly,” he said. “They look to the government. They look to whatever the system will allow.”

Monaco is a 57-year-old Kansas City lawyer who feels he has little margin for error in his finances. He has diabetes and high blood pressure. He’s raised two daughters, and his retirement account won’t allow him to stop working anytime soon. He’ll keep working, he figures, as long as he’s able. If he’s able.

“I don’t see an opportunity for me to ever get out of the workforce,” Monaco said.

That necessity is, he said, partly the result of his own choices. He indulged his two daughters in childhood and insisted on paying for their educations to dodge student debt. He’s lived more comfortably, and less frugally, than his parents’ generation - a group sobered by the hard lessons of the Great Depression.

“I’ve got to pay for keeping up with the Joneses,” Monaco said. “We all seem to have to keep a profile, which is unnatural and unreasonable.”

If you’re not among the gilded 1 percent, it seems, there’s little reason to quit your job just because you’ve celebrated a 65th or 67th or 70th birthday.

Most Americans now calculate they’ll need a paycheck - either part-time or full-time - beyond the time when they can expect full Social Security retirement. (Depending on the year they were born, that falls between 65 and 10 months and 67.) A third will work to stay active. The rest will chase a buck out of necessity.

Longer lives, smaller funds

The good news is we’re living longer. The bad news is we can’t afford it.

This is where history reminds us that Social Security’s original retirement age was set when barely half of those who reached adulthood could expect to live to 65. Now, more than three-fourths cross that line. In 1950, a working man lived an average of seven years after retiring. A half-century later, a similar guy could expect twice as many years of elderly leisure.

In 1995, the average expected retirement age was 60. By 2011, it had been pushed back to 67. But life expectancy isn’t growing that fast. The difference in life expectancy between 1995 and 2011 is less than three years, not the full seven years that retirement got put off.

A Senate study in 2012 identified a $6.6 trillion retirement deficit - the difference between what people should have saved to maintain their lifestyles and the far smaller amount they actually set aside.

The fault is not entirely their own. They've seen the stock market cave in with some regularity - 1987, 2001, 2008, each time more painfully close to baby boomer retirement with less time to make up the losses. And each time making work harder to come by for the gray-haired workers.

“Our parents had mostly paid off their homes, had some pension or defined benefit. And Medicare covered most of their health care costs. None of those are true today,” said Dean Baker, the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

“People still have pensions, but they’re fewer and dwindling rapidly,” he said. “Health care expenses … have exploded.”

His think-tank recently calculated the median wealth - savings, home equity, the works - of people between the ages of 55 and 64 at $170,000. That was about the same as the median home value.

“They literally have nothing left beyond the value of their homes. That means the only thing they have to support them is Social Security,” Baker said. “You’d like to think that people who spent their lives working would have some comfort in retirement.

“That’s going to be a questionable proposition.”

In that way, the Great Recession undercut so many boomers’ sense that they’d be rewarded for long years of work with a decade or more of secure retirement.

“A lot of baby boomers like me thought ... if we worked hard, got our homes paid off, have a little nest egg, we’d probably be doing more travel and enjoying it and spending more time doing community service,” said Tim Pickell, a 60-year-old attorney in Prairie Village.

Like a lot of people, he thought wrong. Much of a family inheritance was wiped out - the stock market tumble took a chunk, so did a need to make up for a slowed-down income stream from his law practice. That set off serious recalculations.

“The reality is,” Pickell said, “I have a lot of hard work to do.”

Arends, the once-successful steelworker, dreads as much as anything the anxiety of endlessly pinching pennies.

Her pension and badly depleted retirement savings must keep a household of three afloat. Indefinitely. She’d like to go to the movies, but rents videos from Redbox instead. She’d like to eat out, but scours a discount grocery for sales. She’d like to spoil her granddaughter, but rarely can.

“I worked hard. I’d like to work more,” she said. “But this is where I am.”


Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/09/28/4516374/great-recession-pummeled-baby.html#storylink=cpy

Why you are unemployed


By Neil Patrick

This morning, I have been catching up with Stefan Molyneux. In case you don’t know him, he is the host of Freedomain Radio, which is billed as ‘the most popular philosophy show in the world’.

Here is part 2 of his series of broadcasts, entitled, ‘Why you are unemployed’.

If you are unemployed, you may not care very much why, just what you can do to change it. So, if this is how you feel, I’ll save you wasting your time and suggest you don’t watch the film below (or even bother to read the rest of this post). There are no solutions or tips here about how you can change your situation. I've posted plenty of more practical advice about this elsewhere on this blog.

But if you want to get some thought provoking ideas about why jobs are getting scarcer and why the US is struggling to create well paid jobs, there are answers, or at the very least hypotheses to be found here.

And these are not the usual suspects like greed and corruption. Or QE and state subsidies of banks. Or even the damaging effects of low cost overseas labor. Stefan makes the point and it’s persuasive I think, that greed and corruption have always been part of human behaviour and they are no more prevalent today than they were in previous generations when professional working people in the US could expect a much better standard of living. It seems fair to assume that something else is at work today.

Stefan Molyneux
 Credit: Frank Licorice


I certainly agree with him that the idea that we live in freedom is a complete myth. If we were truly free, would we be sent to jail if we didn't pay our taxes? If we were free, would we be forced to adhere to the endless rules that our governments impose upon every aspect of the lives of honest hard working people?

Stefan has been described as an anarcho-capitalist philosopher. This means that he supports the free market as the best way of efficiently (and fairly) distributing wealth throughout society. The anarcho bit relates to his beliefs that state interventions in people’s live should be minimized and that the roots of all our problems today lie in over-extended state power and its endless appetite to extract wealth from citizens in the form of taxation and control. He sees this as a vicious circle that has got completely out of hand. He believes that our governments in the US and the west in general have become defacto fascist empires. And like all empires, they exert control and protect their power through the exertion of violence. Not necessarily bloody violence within their borders, but repression nevertheless in the form of taxes, coercion and the threat of imprisonment.

So watching this won’t help you get a job. It might though give you some new ideas about WHY you can’t get one and help you appreciate why it really isn't your fault.

Stefan claims that philosophers are not interested in supporting any political position. That they are only interested in finding the truth. I’ll let you decide for yourself whether or not you think THIS is the truth.